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Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panserraikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 xG and Panserraikos 1.00 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Panserraikos attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 22%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 43%, Panserraikos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Panserraikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights