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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Panetolikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG and Panetolikos 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Panetolikos outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Panetolikos attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Panetolikos 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Panetolikos's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Panetolikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights