Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panetolikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Aris Thessalonikis, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Panetolikos — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Panetolikos winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Panetolikos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Panetolikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG and Panetolikos 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / defence 0.729 | Panetolikos attack 0.737 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.157. Panetolikos's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Aris Thessalonikis games / 49 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Panetolikos 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Panetolikos's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Panetolikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 28% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 / Panetolikos 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.983 / def 0.729 | Panetolikos attack 0.737 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Panetolikos xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 42% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Record (7 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 5W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.74x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.85
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.56
0.62
Panetolikos xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.9 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.62 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 11D 19L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.21 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 15W 6D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (7W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.98 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 11D 19L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panetolikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.82 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Panetolikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Panetolikos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 36% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Panetolikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 46% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 36% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panetolikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG and Panetolikos 0.62 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Panetolikos attack 0.74 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 23%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 41%, Panetolikos 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.59 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.