Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 5D 1L at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Aris Thessalonikis. A 0.70 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aris Thessalonikis lead 3W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Panathinaikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Panathinaikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Panathinaikos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.25 xG and Panathinaikos 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.011 / defence 1.001 | Panathinaikos attack 1.172 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 0.917. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 30 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 28%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Panathinaikos 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Panathinaikos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.25 / Panathinaikos 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.011 / def 1.001 | Panathinaikos attack 1.172 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.490 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Panathinaikos xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 36% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Record (10 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 3 | Panathinaikos 4W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.17x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
36%
2.75
36%
2.78
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
Panathinaikos xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.07 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 12W 14D 10L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos's form line: 18W 10D 8L from 36 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.78 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (5W 10D 2L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.61 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 12W 14D 10L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.47 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 53%, Panathinaikos 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 47% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 35%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 41% of games; Panathinaikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 41% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 47% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.