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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos finished level at 1-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.34 xG and Panathinaikos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Panathinaikos attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 35%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 35%, Panathinaikos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.76 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights