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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Panathinaikos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis beat Panathinaikos 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and Panathinaikos 0.93 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panathinaikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Panathinaikos attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 35%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 42%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Panathinaikos's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights