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Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.86 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.12 / defence 0.71, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 36%, Olympiakos Piraeus 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights