Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees OFI travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
OFI — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 4 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 52% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 36% | OFI 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.51 xG and OFI 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.900 / defence 0.998 | OFI attack 1.043 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 0.918. Data: 27 Aris Thessalonikis games / 27 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 30% | OFI 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 30% | OFI 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.51 / OFI 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.900 / def 0.998 | OFI attack 1.043 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.623 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.95
OFI xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 OFI.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 48% chance of winning, OFI a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 4W | Draws 1 | OFI 4W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.90x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.32
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
OFI xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.95 for OFI, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 12W 13D 8L from 33 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 13W 3D 17L across 33 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.48 PPG, OFI on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 5W 9D 2L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 12W 13D 8L in their last 33 games (1.48 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 3D 17L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or OFI away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.50 PPG; OFI away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, OFI in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, OFI 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 75% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 62% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 75% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and OFI tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out OFI 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 2-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.51 xG and OFI 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 30% | OFI 22%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 36%, OFI 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 PPG, OFI 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.