Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for Lamia and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 4–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lamia trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Lamia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Lamia 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.61 xG and Lamia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.152 / defence 0.933 | Lamia attack 1.107 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.209. Data: 32 Aris Thessalonikis games / 32 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 31% | Lamia 27%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Lamia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 80% | Lamia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 31% | Lamia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.61 / Lamia 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.152 / def 0.933 | Lamia attack 1.107 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lamia xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance of winning, Lamia a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Record (8 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 4W | Draws 2 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.24
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.86
1.25
Lamia xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
5%
18.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.25 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 42 games, going 19W 9D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.95 PPG from 42 outings (10W 10D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.14 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 62%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Lamia away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.75 PPG; Lamia away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lamia in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aris Thessalonikis at 65%, Lamia at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Aris Thessalonikis and 70% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 65% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 70% of Lamia's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lamia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.61 xG and Lamia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Lamia attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 43% | Draw 31% | Lamia 27%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 43%, Lamia 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.