Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ionikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ionikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ionikos's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Aris Thessalonikis. A 0.80 PPG lead over Ionikos (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 1W, Ionikos 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ionikos — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 30% versus Ionikos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Ionikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 xG and Ionikos 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.990 / defence 0.920 | Ionikos attack 0.870 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.059. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Aris Thessalonikis games / 33 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 55% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 16%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Ionikos 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Ionikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 55% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 / Ionikos 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.990 / def 0.920 | Ionikos attack 0.870 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ionikos xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 55% chance of winning, Ionikos a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos?
Record (2 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 0 | Ionikos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Ionikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.87x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
55%
1.81
29%
3.49
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.55
0.85
Ionikos xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
34.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.85 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 20W 8D 12L from 40 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ionikos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 17L across 40 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ionikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ionikos's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Ionikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 games (1.70 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Ionikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.80 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Ionikos in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos?
From 4 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Ionikos 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 25%, Ionikos 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 45% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; Ionikos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 55% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 45% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Ionikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Ionikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Ionikos 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.70 xG and Ionikos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against Ionikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.36, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 55% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 16%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 38%, Ionikos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Ionikos's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.