Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Atromitos at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Aris Thessalonikis have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Atromitos 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 44% versus Atromitos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Atromitos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 xG and Atromitos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.956 / defence 0.760 | Atromitos attack 1.157 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 3 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 / Atromitos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.956 / def 0.760 | Atromitos attack 1.157 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Atromitos xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos is a Conference League Play-off Group - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 39% chance of winning, Atromitos a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Record (6 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.33
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.08
0.96
Atromitos xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.96 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 29W 13D 19L from 61 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 25L across 61 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 16W 7D 7L from 30 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 13D 19L in their last 61 games (1.64 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 18W 18D 25L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Atromitos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.83 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Atromitos in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, Atromitos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Atromitos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 60% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Atromitos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 57% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 60% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Atromitos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Conference League Play-off Group - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 xG and Atromitos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.96 / defence 0.76 against Atromitos attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 39% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 31%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 39%, Atromitos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.