Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.00 for Asteras Tripolis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 3W, Asteras Tripolis 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 43% versus Asteras Tripolis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Asteras Tripolis 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.087 / defence 1.001 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.007 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.171. Data: 28 Aris Thessalonikis games / 28 Asteras Tripolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 35% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 37%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Asteras Tripolis 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 80% | Asteras Tripolis 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 35% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 / Asteras Tripolis 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.087 / def 1.001 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.007 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 35% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (4 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.09) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.01x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.56
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.34
1.18
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.18 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 16W 8D 11L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis's form line: 12W 5D 18L from 35 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Asteras Tripolis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L).
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 7W 1D 9L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.17 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 games (1.60 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 5D 18L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.65 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 59%, Asteras Tripolis 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 53% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 53% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 3, as Aris Thessalonikis and Asteras Tripolis drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.16 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 35% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 37%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 40%, Asteras Tripolis 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.