Apollon Smirnis 1-3 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Apollon Smirnis at 50%, yet in-form Volos NFC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to take on Apollon Smirnis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Apollon Smirnis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Volos NFC's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Apollon Smirnis's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.97 xG and Volos NFC 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Volos NFC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.859 / away 0.224. Data: 1 Apollon Smirnis games / 1 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 50% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 13%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 2.00 | Draw 2.70 | Volos NFC 7.69. Apollon Smirnis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 18% | Total xG 1.32. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.32 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 82% — Volos NFC's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 18%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Apollon Smirnis are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Volos NFC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Apollon Smirnis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 15% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 50% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 18% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.97 / Volos NFC 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Volos NFC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.859 / away 0.224 • Poisson stance: Apollon Smirnis (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.35
Volos NFC xG
18%
BTTS
38%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Apollon Smirnis 1 - 3 Volos NFC.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 50% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 13% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Apollon Smirnis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 18% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 28.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (24.7%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Apollon Smirnis Win
50%
1.99
37%
2.72
13%
7.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
25.9%
Home win
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.32
0.35
Volos NFC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
7.61
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
38%
Over 1.5
2.63
62%
Under 1.5
1.61
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
18%
BTTS Yes
5.47
82%
BTTS No
1.22
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.8 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 28.0%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.35 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 1.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Volos NFC by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Apollon Smirnis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Volos NFC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 1-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 100% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Apollon Smirnis's matches and 100% of Volos NFC's.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Apollon Smirnis 1-3 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.97 xG and Volos NFC 0.35 xG, a combined 1.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 0.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 50% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 13%, with Apollon Smirnis to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 38% and landed. Over 3.5 was 4% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 18% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 100%, Volos NFC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Apollon Smirnis scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.