Apollon Smirnis 1-3 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Apollon Smirnis at 50%, yet in-form Volos NFC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to take on Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1 (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 1 games, Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 0D 1L — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Volos NFC — last 1 games: 1W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Form points away from home here. Volos NFC's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Apollon Smirnis's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.97 xG and Volos NFC 0.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Volos NFC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.859 / away 0.224. Data: built from Apollon Smirnis's last 1 games and Volos NFC's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 50% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 13%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 1.99 | Draw 2.72 | Volos NFC 7.61. Apollon Smirnis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS Yes probability 18% | Total xG 1.32. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.32 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 82% — Volos NFC's lower xG of 0.35 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Apollon Smirnis are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Volos NFC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Apollon Smirnis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 85% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Apollon Smirnis's last 1 games and Volos NFC's last 1 games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (Apollon Smirnis 1 games, Volos NFC 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Sunday 19 September 2021 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 50% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% (Under 85%) | BTTS Yes 18% (No 82%) | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.97 / Volos NFC 0.35 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Volos NFC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.859 / away 0.224 • Poisson stance: Apollon Smirnis (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.35
Volos NFC xG
18%
BTTS
38%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
4%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Apollon Smirnis 1 - 3 Volos NFC.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 50% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 13% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Apollon Smirnis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 18% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (82%).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (85%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Apollon Smirnis's last 1 games and Volos NFC's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 28.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (24.7%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Apollon Smirnis Win
50%
1.99
37%
2.72
13%
7.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
25.9%
Home win
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.32
0.35
Volos NFC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
7.61
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
38%
Over 1.5
2.63
62%
Under 1.5
1.61
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
4%
Over 3.5
25.00
96%
Under 3.5
1.04
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
18%
BTTS Yes
5.47
82%
BTTS No
1.22
Clean Sheet
70%
1.42
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.8 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 25.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 28.0%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.35 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 1.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Volos NFC by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 100%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
Apollon Smirnis (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 April 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Apollon Smirnis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Volos NFC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 April 2022: Apollon Smirnis 1-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 100% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Apollon Smirnis's matches and 100% of Volos NFC's.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 100% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Apollon Smirnis 1-3 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.97 xG and Volos NFC 0.35 xG, a combined 1.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 0.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 50% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 13%, with Apollon Smirnis to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 38% and landed. Over 3.5 was 4% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 18% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 100%, Volos NFC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Apollon Smirnis scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.