Apollon Smirnis 0-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Apollon Smirnis take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Apollon Smirnis welcome Atromitos to Stadio Georgios Kamaras. Kick-off is set for Monday 28 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Apollon Smirnis 0.50 PPG, Atromitos 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Apollon Smirnis, 1 for Atromitos and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Atromitos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 26% versus Atromitos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 44% | Atromitos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.78 xG and Atromitos 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.463 / defence 1.222 | Atromitos attack 0.642 / defence 1.703. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.057. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.463 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atromitos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.703 — this is suppressing Apollon Smirnis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Apollon Smirnis games / 23 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 31% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 34%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Atromitos 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 10% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 31% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.78 / Atromitos 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.463 / def 1.222 | Atromitos attack 0.642 / def 1.703 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Atromitos xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 31% chance of winning, Atromitos a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): Apollon Smirnis 0W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.46x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
35%
2.84
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.61
0.83
Atromitos xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.28
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.83 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Apollon Smirnis have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 2W 7D 14L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 4W 5D 14L from 23 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Apollon Smirnis on 0.57 PPG, Atromitos on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Apollon Smirnis have posted 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (1W 6D 5L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 9L from 12 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Apollon Smirnis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.39 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.00 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 2W 7D 14L in their last 23 games (0.57 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Atromitos away?
Apollon Smirnis's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.75 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atromitos in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Atromitos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Atromitos won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
0
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Atromitos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Apollon Smirnis 17% BTTS, Atromitos 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Apollon Smirnis) and 58% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 75% of games; Atromitos in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 42% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 58% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Atromitos tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Apollon Smirnis 0-2 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.78 xG and Atromitos 0.83 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.46 / defence 1.22 against Atromitos attack 0.64 / defence 1.70, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 31% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 44%, Atromitos 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Apollon Smirnis 0.57 PPG, Atromitos 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.