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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Volos NFC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Volos NFC 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.48 xG and Volos NFC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 20%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 39%, Volos NFC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Volos NFC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights