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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PAOK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 3-0 at Allwyn Arena, Championship Group - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.59 xG and PAOK 0.88 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.67 against PAOK attack 1.24 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 29% | PAOK 19%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 42%, PAOK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

PAOK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.97 PPG, PAOK 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights