🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AEK Athens FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 0-2 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.50 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.66 against PAOK attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 48% | Draw 26% | PAOK 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 40%, PAOK 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

PAOK's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.82 PPG, PAOK 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights