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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Panetolikos 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Panetolikos 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.30 xG and Panetolikos 0.79 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.75 against Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 48% | Draw 30% | Panetolikos 22%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 38%, Panetolikos 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Panetolikos's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights