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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 19, as AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.20 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.76 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.11 / defence 0.68, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 42% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 39%, Olympiakos Piraeus 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights