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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out OFI 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat OFI 2-1 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.09 xG and OFI 0.73 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.76 against OFI attack 0.84 / defence 1.37, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 69% | Draw 19% | OFI 12%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 38%, OFI 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

OFI's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights