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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kifisia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Kifisia 3-0 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.27 xG and Kifisia 0.64 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.67 against Kifisia attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 73% | Draw 19% | Kifisia 8%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 40%, Kifisia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kifisia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights