🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kallithea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Kallithea 2-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.82 xG and Kallithea 0.66 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.69 against Kallithea attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 65% | Draw 22% | Kallithea 13%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 41%, Kallithea 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kallithea's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights