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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Atromitos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Atromitos 4-1 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.13 xG and Atromitos 0.78 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.68 against Atromitos attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 44% | Draw 31% | Atromitos 25%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 36%, Atromitos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Atromitos's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights