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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Asteras Tripolis 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Asteras Tripolis 1-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.48 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.74 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.81 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 55% | Draw 26% | Asteras Tripolis 19%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 42%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.70 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights