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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out Werder Bremen 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat Werder Bremen 1-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.29 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 23% | Draw 24% | VfL Wolfsburg 53%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.26 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights