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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 3-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.23 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 53% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.34 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights