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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 3-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.91 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.21 / defence 1.35, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.36 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights