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Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 2.02 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 30% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 48%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.28 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights