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Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Werder Bremen 2-4 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.61 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.79 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 42%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.27 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights