Werder Bremen 0-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Werder Bremen welcome Borussia Dortmund to Weserstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Weserstadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Dortmund, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Werder Bremen.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 60% and Borussia Dortmund 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 60% | Borussia Dortmund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.67 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.034 / defence 1.017 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.023 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.426. Data: 35 Werder Bremen games / 35 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 33%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 80% | Borussia Dortmund 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Werder Bremen 1.67 / Borussia Dortmund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.034 / def 1.017 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.023 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Werder Bremen 0 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 41% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (6 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 5W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.92
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.15
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
6%
15.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.48 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 11W 10D 14L from 35 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 7L across 35 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 8W 6D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.47 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 65%, Borussia Dortmund 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Werder Bremen and 59% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Werder Bremen's games and 65% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Werder Bremen's matches and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Werder Bremen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 2, as Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.67 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 33%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Borussia Dortmund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.