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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 2, as Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.34 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.56 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 42%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 66%, Bayer Leverkusen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights