Werder Bremen 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld meet at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.36 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.883 / defence 1.420 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.792 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.538. Data: 2 Werder Bremen games / 2 Arminia Bielefeld games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 43%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Arminia Bielefeld 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Werder Bremen 1.36 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.883 / def 1.420 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.792 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Arminia Bielefeld xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 October 2020 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Werder Bremen 1 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 27% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.79x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
27%
3.70
30%
3.35
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.09
1.73
Arminia Bielefeld xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.87
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.73 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Arminia Bielefeld are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Werder Bremen's scoring rate against Arminia Bielefeld's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Werder Bremen or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2021, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Werder Bremen's games and 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 0% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.36 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.73 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.42 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 43%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 100%, Arminia Bielefeld 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Arminia Bielefeld arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.