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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.69 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.08 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 52% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Köln 24%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.47 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights