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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 2.36 xG and VfL Bochum 1.14 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against VfL Bochum attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 64% | Draw 20% | VfL Bochum 16%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, VfL Bochum 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights