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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.58 xG and SC Freiburg 1.40 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against SC Freiburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 33%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 59%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.19 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights