VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.93) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
21%
4.71
26%
3.88
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.18
1.97
FSV Mainz 05 xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
3%
33.71
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.97 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.