VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host FSV Mainz 05 at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Volkswagen Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FSV Mainz 05 — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VfL Wolfsburg, 1 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 52% versus FSV Mainz 05 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 58% | FSV Mainz 05 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.895 / defence 0.998 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.739 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Data: 67 VfL Wolfsburg games / 67 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 23%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | FSV Mainz 05 4.35. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
VfL Wolfsburg dominate the H2H record, yet FSV Mainz 05 are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FSV Mainz 05 (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 70% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 / FSV Mainz 05 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.895 / def 0.998 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.739 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 46% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (5 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 3W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.90) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.23
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.07 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 23W 17D 27L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
FSV Mainz 05's form line: 18W 24D 25L from 67 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.28 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L).
On the road, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 6W 13D 14L from 33 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.34 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 23W 17D 27L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 18W 24D 25L in their last 67 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.42 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
3
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 64%, FSV Mainz 05 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for VfL Wolfsburg and 58% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 58% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 23%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, FSV Mainz 05 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.28 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.