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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 18, as VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 2.32 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.57 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.06 / defence 1.36 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 54% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 25%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 63%, 1. FC Heidenheim 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights