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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 34% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 63%, Eintracht Frankfurt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights