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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Köln finished level at 3-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.40 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.20 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.83 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 41% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 58%, 1. FC Köln 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights