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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-4 hammering of VfL Bochum.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Bochum 0-4 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.11 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.32 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. VfL Bochum fell 1.1 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.32 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 31% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 41%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 59%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights