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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat VfL Bochum 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat VfL Bochum 0-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Bochum fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against SC Freiburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 58% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 20%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, SC Freiburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights