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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Bochum and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 18, as VfL Bochum and RB Leipzig drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.31 xG and RB Leipzig 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VfL Bochum beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.72 / defence 0.94 against RB Leipzig attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 35% | Draw 26% | RB Leipzig 39%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 59%, RB Leipzig 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights