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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out VfL Bochum 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat VfL Bochum 1-2 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 0.92 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against FC Augsburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 21% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 54%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights