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Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Bochum.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfL Bochum 1-3 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.79 / defence 0.98 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 34% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 38%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Bochum's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights