VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.50 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 4W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 62% versus Werder Bremen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 71% | Werder Bremen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.04 xG and Werder Bremen 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.018 / defence 1.107 | Werder Bremen attack 1.107 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 VfB Stuttgart games / 42 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 46% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 32%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Werder Bremen 3.12. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 46% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.04 / Werder Bremen 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.018 / def 1.107 | Werder Bremen attack 1.107 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Werder Bremen xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at MHPArena.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 46% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
Record (10 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 4W | Draws 3 | Werder Bremen 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.02) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.11x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
46%
2.17
22%
4.55
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.73
1.69
Werder Bremen xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.69 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 21W 8D 13L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen's form line: 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — VfB Stuttgart are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 6D 10L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.29 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Werder Bremen away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.10 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 45%, Werder Bremen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfB Stuttgart) and 55% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 55% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 55% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.