🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.97 xG and Werder Bremen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Werder Bremen attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 36%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, Werder Bremen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights