🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out VfB Stuttgart 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.12 / defence 1.01 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.22 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 36% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 39%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with VfL Wolfsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights