VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as VfB Stuttgart welcome SC Paderborn 07 to MHPArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 1D 2L at MHPArena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 1.20 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 63% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 74% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.07 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.990 / defence 0.861 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.590 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 2.005 / away 1.400. Data: 38 VfB Stuttgart games / 4 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 69% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 11%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | SC Paderborn 07 9.09. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 40% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 69% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 45% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.07 / SC Paderborn 07 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.990 / def 0.861 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.590 / def 1.044 | league avg home 2.005 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.71
SC Paderborn 07 xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at MHPArena.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 69% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07 in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.99) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
69%
1.46
20%
4.94
11%
8.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.78
0.71
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
8.95
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
71.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.71 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 8D 11L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.74 PPG from 38 outings (19W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.71 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 13W 3D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — VfB Stuttgart are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.21 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 42%, SC Paderborn 07 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VfB Stuttgart) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 42% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.