VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at MHPArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at MHPArena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on paper — 8 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 5–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VfB Stuttgart and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and FC Augsburg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 71% | FC Augsburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.21 xG and FC Augsburg 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.017 / defence 1.104 | FC Augsburg attack 1.319 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 VfB Stuttgart games / 42 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 36%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.27 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 50% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.21 / FC Augsburg 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.017 / def 1.104 | FC Augsburg attack 1.319 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
2.00
FC Augsburg xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at MHPArena.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 44% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
Record (10 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 8W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.32x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
44%
2.29
21%
4.85
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.22
2.00
FC Augsburg xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.41
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.95
4%
25.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 2.00 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 21W 8D 13L from 42 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 18L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 13W 3D 4L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — VfB Stuttgart are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 6W 2D 12L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.10 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 45%, FC Augsburg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for VfB Stuttgart and 75% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 75% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.